Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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BMY Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $8.0B | $-8.9B | $7.1B | $8.6B | $7.2B | $3.8B | $3.6B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.86 | $-4.41 | $3.45 | $4.17 | $3.45 | $1.80 | $1.71 |
| YoY Growth | — | -211.5% | — | +21.5% | -16.5% | -47.5% | -4.6% |
| Net Margin | 17.8% | -18.5% | 14.6% | 17.8% | 14.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% |
USD · BMY · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.2B | $48.2B | $48.3B | $50.5B | $51.9B |
| Net Income | $7.1B | $8.6B | $7.2B | $3.8B | $3.6B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.45 | $4.17 | $3.45 | $1.80 | $1.71 |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.8B | $6.1B | $4.9B | $4.4B | $4.2B |
Forecast is usable, but expect normal estimate drift around earnings and macro events.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying BMY stock.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $4.17. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 55/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company: Bear case $16, Base case $57, and Bull case $56. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -0.6%, reaching approximately $48.2B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 55/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's forward operating margin is estimated at 24.0% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($16) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 33.8% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 43% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.