MODEL VERDICT
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $19.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $20.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $20.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $20.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $19.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $21.46 | +9.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $20.08 | +2.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $22.67 | +15.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $22.50 | +14.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $23.79 | +21.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $14.73 | -25.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $19.40 | -1.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $20.71 | +5.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.93 | +16.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.96 | +1.6% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (2.6%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.66 | 28.63 | 18.44 | 44.50 | 10.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.58 | 26.47 | 18.80 | 34.82 | 6.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.87 | 14.48 | 13.59 | 17.49 | 1.44 |
| P/FCF | 14.08 | 14.00 | 12.02 | 16.72 | 1.79 |
| P/FFO | 12.56 | 11.81 | 9.98 | 17.35 | 2.74 |
| P/TBV | 1.40 | 1.34 | 1.13 | 1.94 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 13.63 | 13.50 | 10.55 | 17.47 | 2.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 1.48 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.95 | 7.51 | 7.11 | 10.62 | 1.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BNL's fair value at $19.96 vs the current price of $19.64, implying +1.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.54 (P10) to $21.02 (P90), with a median of $19.71.
BNL's current P/E of 39.3x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +33.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover BNL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $19.00 — $21.00), implying +1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BNL trades at the 8460th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BNL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (28.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2080.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.