MODEL VERDICT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $171.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $168.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $163.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $157.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $155.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $97.66 | -43.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $95.82 | -44.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $79.09 | -53.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $143.13 | -16.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $151.03 | -11.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $66.00 | -61.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $62.40 | -63.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $92.16 | -46.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $121.18 | -29.3% | 100% | 62 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $164 | $177 | $190 | $203 | $217 |
| Conservative (19%) | $175 | $189 | $203 | $217 | $231 |
| Base Case (29.1%) | $190 | $205 | $220 | $235 | $251 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $205 | $221 | $238 | $254 | $270 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.40 | 30.01 | 9.88 | 61.22 | 16.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.80 | 22.50 | 8.46 | 44.81 | 11.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.09 | 17.39 | 6.73 | 26.85 | 7.06 |
| P/FCF | 42.71 | 37.76 | 28.45 | 66.85 | 16.75 |
| P/FFO | 18.29 | 22.15 | 7.33 | 30.80 | 8.68 |
| P/TBV | 43.51 | 6.76 | 4.50 | 234.95 | 84.84 |
| P/AFFO | 35.31 | 40.60 | 9.56 | 59.74 | 19.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.84 | 4.80 | 3.00 | 9.19 | 2.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 1.65 | 1.28 | 4.06 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BOOT's fair value at $121.18 vs the current price of $171.47, implying -29.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $121.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $89.13 (P10) to $135.87 (P90), with a median of $112.05.
BOOT's current P/E of 29.2x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +116.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
29 analysts cover BOOT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $231.50 (range: $195.00 — $267.00), implying +35.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BOOT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3370.0% to approximately $229. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.