MODEL VERDICT
Box, Inc. (BOX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $24.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.71 | Pending | -17.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $20.33 | -13.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $10.30 | -56.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $31.25 | +32.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $33.27 | +41.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $8.42 | -64.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $35.09 | +49.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $24.57 | +4.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $21.50 | -8.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $35.19 | +49.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $34.52 | +46.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.39 | +41.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 70.48 | 47.16 | 21.99 | 142.28 | 63.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 83.91 | 94.64 | 49.79 | 107.30 | 30.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 64.38 | 47.09 | 38.44 | 97.55 | 28.93 |
| P/FCF | 33.58 | 21.59 | 13.49 | 85.20 | 28.60 |
| P/FFO | 65.08 | 41.46 | 16.67 | 121.74 | 51.46 |
| P/TBV | 131.41 | 97.08 | 37.97 | 259.19 | 114.54 |
| P/AFFO | 97.96 | 50.43 | 16.83 | 230.90 | 95.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 64.26 | 75.53 | 22.54 | 119.30 | 40.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.44 | 4.08 | 3.83 | 5.54 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BOX's fair value at $33.39 vs the current price of $23.55, implying +41.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.15 (P10) to $45.65 (P90), with a median of $35.26.
BOX's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -24.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 70.5x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover BOX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying +52.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BOX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.