MODEL VERDICT
Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $25.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $27.28 | Pending | -8.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $47.13 | +88.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $37.08 | +48.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $32.16 | +28.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $40.42 | +61.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $22.31 | -10.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $38.28 | +53.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $20.24 | -19.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $22.58 | -9.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $36.22 | +44.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $41.94 | +67.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.04 | +68.2% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $25 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.89 | 21.98 | 14.72 | 28.87 | 5.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.51 | 30.26 | 23.41 | 82.49 | 24.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.21 | 27.12 | 16.37 | 84.16 | 27.97 |
| P/FCF | 15.30 | 13.86 | 10.66 | 20.38 | 3.97 |
| P/FFO | 25.04 | 16.48 | 11.45 | 61.02 | 20.34 |
| P/TBV | 57.32 | 14.00 | 12.95 | 145.01 | 75.94 |
| P/AFFO | 16.84 | 17.07 | 12.04 | 21.19 | 3.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.83 | 10.82 | 9.12 | 27.54 | 10.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.34 | 4.44 | 3.50 | 5.26 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DBX's fair value at $42.04 vs the current price of $24.99, implying +68.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.62 (P10) to $54.08 (P90), with a median of $42.81.
DBX's current P/E of 17.9x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -22.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.9x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
15 analysts cover DBX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.50 (range: $23.00 — $30.00), implying +6.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DBX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7940.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.