MODEL VERDICT
Princeton Bancorp, Inc. (BPRN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $40.18 | +11.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $50.56 | +40.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $56.25 | +55.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $40.18 | +11.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $38.50 | +6.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.76 | +21.2% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $25 | $31 | $36 | $42 | $47 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $31 | $37 | $43 | $48 |
| Base Case (6.2%) | $26 | $32 | $37 | $43 | $49 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $26 | $32 | $38 | $44 | $50 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.37 | 11.65 | 7.72 | 22.21 | 6.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.73 | 7.07 | 4.32 | 16.95 | 4.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.92 | 6.63 | 4.32 | 14.39 | 3.69 |
| P/FCF | 13.52 | 13.66 | 8.75 | 17.26 | 3.86 |
| P/FFO | 11.85 | 9.26 | 7.17 | 19.02 | 5.34 |
| P/TBV | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.82 | 1.18 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 14.57 | 10.79 | 7.32 | 29.21 | 8.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 1.11 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.40 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 3.44 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BPRN's fair value at $43.76 vs the current price of $36.11, implying +21.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.84 (P10) to $46.56 (P90), with a median of $42.16.
BPRN's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -10.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
6 analysts cover BPRN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.00 (range: $34.00 — $34.00), implying -5.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BPRN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.