MODEL VERDICT
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $56.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $57.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $53.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $51.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $55.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.84 | -63.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $35.93 | -36.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $15.86 | -72.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $12.40 | -78.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $28.11 | -50.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $15.78 | -72.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $47.63 | -16.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $38.15 | -33.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $15.86 | -72.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $13.24 | -76.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.02 | +10.7% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 76× | 83× | 90× (Current) | 97× | 104× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $50 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $68 |
| Conservative (7%) | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $53 | $58 | $62 | $67 | $72 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 469.82 | 168.97 | 97.17 | 1143.32 | 584.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 418.45 | 55.23 | 47.56 | 1515.75 | 731.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.01 | 30.60 | 21.75 | 49.09 | 11.74 |
| P/FFO | 67.38 | 39.49 | 27.75 | 186.23 | 66.79 |
| P/TBV | 7.81 | 8.13 | 3.03 | 12.70 | 3.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.22 | 7.87 | 2.91 | 10.92 | 3.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.62 | 4.69 | 1.98 | 4.70 | 1.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates BROS's fair value at $63.02 vs the current price of $56.95, implying +10.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.25 (P10) to $121.55 (P90), with a median of $70.41.
BROS's current P/E of 90.4x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +259.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 469.8x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
21 analysts cover BROS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.45 (range: $59.00 — $85.00), implying +30.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BROS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22050.0% to approximately $183. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.