MODEL VERDICT
Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $12.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $12.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $13.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $12.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $12.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $41.44 | +223.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $97.25 | +659.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $103.04 | +705.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $4.50 | -64.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $16.74 | +30.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.79 | +296.8% | 100% | 42 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.95 | 26.08 | 9.29 | 90.34 | 36.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.95 | 11.55 | 8.86 | 15.37 | 2.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.88 | 8.62 | 5.31 | 13.64 | 2.71 |
| P/FCF | 6.07 | 6.23 | 4.09 | 8.08 | 1.43 |
| P/FFO | 7.52 | 6.65 | 4.80 | 10.48 | 2.47 |
| P/AFFO | 8.89 | 8.22 | 5.99 | 13.12 | 3.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.35 | 2.28 | 1.75 | 3.03 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.53 | 1.45 | 1.11 | 2.20 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRSL's fair value at $50.79 vs the current price of $12.80, implying +296.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 42/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.05 (P10) to $61.55 (P90), with a median of $52.23.
BRSL's current P/E of -1280.0x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -6424.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover BRSL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.50 (range: $17.00 — $20.00), implying +44.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 42/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (18), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BRSL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.