Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)
Valuation Overview•Is Brightstar Lottery PLC Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Fragile underlying quality score of 36/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
BRSL demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 26.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $584.0M | -0.0% | -1.1% | -4.2% | — | |
| EBITDA | $279.0M | — | -1.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $33.0M | -57.8% | -18.8% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.18 | -100.5% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.5B | -147.1% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 46.4% | 52.6% | 50.3% | 48.0% |
| Operating Margin | 26.9% | 31.5% | 29.1% | 25.5% |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% |
| FCF Margin | -89.5% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 20.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.03 | $0.11 | +230.0% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.19 | $0.14 | -26.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.29 | $0.36 | +24.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.21 | $0.36 | +71.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.17 | $0.12 | -29.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.16 | $0.09 | -45.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.18 | $0.22 | +22.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.16 | $-0.02 | -112.7% |
Total return is -39.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -54.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -31.1% | -43.8% | — |
| 1Y | -39.9% | -54.9% | +5.1% |
| 3YCAGR | -20.2% | -41.8% | +18.3% |
| 5YCAGR | -9.4% | -21.9% | +25.6% |
| 10YCAGR | -2.2% | -15.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) valuation, health, and returns.
Brightstar Lottery PLC is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. undervalued (implying +960.4% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $104.45)
Brightstar Lottery PLC has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $104.45 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $15.27 (implying +55.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Brightstar Lottery PLC displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 36/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.0 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.7%.
Brightstar Lottery PLC pays a 39.7% dividend yield, covered by a 524% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 15.0% buyback yield.
Brightstar Lottery PLC's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -0.0% 1Y revenue growth and -100.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +55.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Brightstar Lottery PLC include: -46.8% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.88x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.