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Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$14.61
→
Intrinsic$128.67
+781%
$79.96$128.67$221.09
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BRSL could have 781% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $15, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $80 → Bull $221. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $164 | $179 | $195 | $212 |
| 10% | $107 | $118 | $129 | $140 |
| 12% | $76 | $84 | $92 | $101 |
| 14% | $56 | $62 | $69 | $76 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($221) offers 1413% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($80) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.10B
Year 2$1.38B
Year 3$1.72B
Year 4$2.15B
Year 5$2.69B
Terminal$39.56B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$881.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.