MODEL VERDICT
Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $10.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $8.49 | -28.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $40.32 | +240.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $39.93 | +237.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.58 | +73.8% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 60.79 | 31.37 | 4.27 | 176.14 | 79.45 |
| P/FFO | 69.95 | 40.38 | 7.61 | 191.42 | 85.24 |
| P/TBV | 6.66 | 3.65 | 3.32 | 18.90 | 6.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.91 | 3.64 | 3.03 | 10.77 | 3.29 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.40 | 3.48 | 2.81 | 8.51 | 2.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTDR's fair value at $20.58 vs the current price of $11.84, implying +73.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.44 (P10) to $27.92 (P90), with a median of $20.71.
BTDR's current P/E of -8.3x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -147.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover BTDR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.70 (range: $5.90 — $30.00), implying +66.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BTDR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.