MODEL VERDICT
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $58.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $58.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $56.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $56.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $58.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $71.59 | +21.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $30.37 | -48.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $93.96 | +60.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $6.53 | -88.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $97.42 | +65.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $112.88 | +92.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $107.67 | +83.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $30.43 | -48.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $91.62 | +56.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.67 | -10.3% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $40 | $44 | $49 | $53 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $41 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Base Case (-11.4%) | $31 | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $30 | $33 | $37 | $40 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.92 | 13.56 | 11.98 | 26.71 | 5.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.51 | 11.87 | 8.12 | 24.26 | 5.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.71 | 11.61 | 10.62 | 19.27 | 3.27 |
| P/FCF | 8.79 | 9.15 | 6.37 | 11.54 | 1.61 |
| P/FFO | 12.13 | 11.99 | 10.28 | 14.49 | 1.52 |
| P/AFFO | 13.23 | 12.91 | 11.52 | 16.10 | 1.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.32 | 1.26 | 1.10 | 1.62 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 3.27 | 2.39 | 3.72 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTI's fair value at $52.67 vs the current price of $58.71, implying -10.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.36 (P10) to $65.86 (P90), with a median of $59.56.
BTI's current P/E of 31.7x compares to the industry median of 22.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +42.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover BTI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying -31.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BTI trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BTI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.