BlackRock Technology and Private Equity Term Trust (BTX) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
BlackRock Technology and Private Equity Term Trust (BTX)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.80 | Pending | -1.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $3.58 | -45.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $34.26 | +421.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $4.09 | -37.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $31.25 | +375.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $4.03 | -38.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $37.25 | +467.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.26 | +162.7% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.12 | 5.79 | 5.26 | 7.31 | 1.06 |
| P/TBV | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTX's fair value at $17.26 vs the current price of $6.57, implying +162.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.69 (P10) to $21.14 (P90), with a median of $14.70.
BTX's current P/E of 38.6x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +83.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for BTX.
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.