MODEL VERDICT
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $318.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $331.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $347.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $339.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $333.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $271.99 | -14.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $344.29 | +8.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $247.71 | -22.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $61.88 | -80.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $236.09 | -25.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $28.43 | -91.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $387.77 | +21.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $384.52 | +20.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $238.92 | -24.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $57.27 | -82.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $332.53 | +4.6% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $267 | $297 | $326 | $356 | $386 |
| Conservative (7%) | $273 | $304 | $334 | $365 | $395 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $282 | $314 | $345 | $377 | $408 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $291 | $324 | $356 | $389 | $421 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.63 | 36.87 | 30.37 | 58.10 | 10.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.05 | 29.34 | 25.07 | 42.79 | 6.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.32 | 18.01 | 14.71 | 240.98 | 84.53 |
| P/FCF | 60.91 | 41.36 | 27.33 | 107.95 | 36.44 |
| P/FFO | 23.81 | 22.81 | 18.02 | 31.07 | 4.86 |
| P/TBV | 38.11 | 26.21 | 4.76 | 96.01 | 31.93 |
| P/AFFO | 177.10 | 94.02 | 46.84 | 473.53 | 199.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.99 | 16.81 | 4.76 | 37.12 | 11.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.92 | 1.73 | 1.30 | 3.00 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BURL's fair value at $332.53 vs the current price of $318.00, implying +4.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $332.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $213.37 (P10) to $562.03 (P90), with a median of $324.31.
BURL's current P/E of 33.4x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +28.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.6x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
35 analysts cover BURL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $331.88 (range: $270.00 — $375.00), implying +4.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (34), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BURL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2040.0% to approximately $383. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.