Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL)
Valuation Overview•Is Burlington Stores, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 55/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
BURL demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (39.7% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 7.3%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | +8.8% | +9.9% | +14.9% | +8.5% | |
| EBITDA | $272.3M | — | +24.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $114.7M | +21.1% | +38.4% | — | +15.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.79 | +21.9% | +39.7% | — | +16.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$228.2M | +699.8% | +5.7% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 44.0% | 43.3% | 42.4% | 41.7% |
| Operating Margin | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% |
| Net Margin | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| FCF Margin | 3.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.80 | $2.01 | +11.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $4.75 | $4.89 | +2.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.64 | $1.80 | +9.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.28 | $1.59 | +24.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.43 | $1.60 | +11.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $3.77 | $4.07 | +8.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.54 | $1.55 | +0.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.95 | $1.20 | +26.3% |
Total return is +48.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +23.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +12.9% | +3.6% | — |
| 1Y | +48.2% | +23.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +30.7% | +10.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +2.2% | -10.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +18.2% | +4.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) valuation, health, and returns.
Burlington Stores, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -18.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $274.31)
Burlington Stores, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $274.31 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $286.28 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $366.29 (implying +8.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Burlington Stores, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 55/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.7 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.3%.
Burlington Stores, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 1.3% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -0.7% in the last 12 months.
Burlington Stores, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +8.8% 1Y revenue growth and +21.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 35 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +8.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Burlington Stores, Inc. include: -19.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.03x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.