MODEL VERDICT
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $52.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $50.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $52.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $52.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $52.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $65.62 | +25.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $38.33 | -26.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $40.43 | -22.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $23.02 | -55.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $65.55 | +25.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $58.02 | +11.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.32 | -3.5% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $42 | $52 | $63 | $73 | $83 |
| Conservative (28%) | $45 | $57 | $68 | $80 | $91 |
| Base Case (42.8%) | $51 | $64 | $76 | $89 | $102 |
| Bull Case (58%) | $56 | $70 | $84 | $98 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.79 | 10.30 | 6.14 | 26.07 | 8.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.55 | 4.51 | 0.81 | 14.02 | 5.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.81 | 4.17 | 0.76 | 12.22 | 4.32 |
| P/FCF | 22.81 | 8.22 | 2.89 | 83.00 | 28.93 |
| P/FFO | 10.50 | 9.13 | 5.51 | 17.80 | 4.88 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 1.28 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 12.40 | 9.84 | 6.04 | 25.93 | 7.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 1.26 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.91 | 1.86 | 1.19 | 2.93 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWFG's fair value at $50.32 vs the current price of $52.16, implying -3.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.27 (P10) to $56.47 (P90), with a median of $49.15.
BWFG's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -20.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover BWFG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BWFG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2690.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.