Blackstone Inc. (BX)
Valuation Overview•Is Blackstone Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 76/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Confirm your valuation thesis with live pattern overlays, key pivot levels, and AI trade plans.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
BX exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (23.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (18.0% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 53.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | +21.9% | +23.1% | +20.5% | +12.2% | |
| EBITDA | $3.0B | — | +26.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.2B | +8.7% | +20.0% | — | +15.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.57 | +7.2% | +18.0% | +20.9% | +14.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | -49.0% | -34.1% | -0.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 91.9% | 96.4% | 97.9% | 98.9% |
| Operating Margin | 53.9% | 51.7% | 57.0% | 58.4% |
| Net Margin | 22.7% | 22.6% | 25.5% | 25.7% |
| FCF Margin | 28.5% | 33.0% | 41.6% | 22.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $1.34 | $1.52 | +13.4% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.34 | $1.36 | +1.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.54 | $1.75 | +13.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.23 | $1.52 | +23.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.10 | $1.21 | +10.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.05 | $1.09 | +3.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.48 | $1.69 | +14.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.92 | $1.01 | +9.8% |
Total return is -32.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -48.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -22.4% | -34.8% | — |
| 1Y | -32.7% | -48.4% | +2.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +6.2% | -13.9% | +11.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +2.1% | -8.7% | +16.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +19.4% | +6.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Blackstone Inc. (BX) valuation, health, and returns.
Blackstone Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -31.7% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $85.29)
Blackstone Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $85.29 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $119.61 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $145.89 (implying +22.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Blackstone Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 76/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 16.1%.
Blackstone Inc. pays a 6.5% dividend yield, covered by a 199% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.3% buyback yield.
Blackstone Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +21.9% 1Y revenue growth and +7.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +23.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 30 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +22.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Blackstone Inc. include: -45.9% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.34x market volatility), stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.34x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.