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Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$25.58
→
Intrinsic$66.87
+161%
$44.12$66.87$110.05
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CAAP could have 161% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $26, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 20%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $44 → Bull $110. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$82$90$97$106
10%$57$62$67$73
12%$42$46$50$54
14%$33$36$39$43

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($110) offers 330% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($44) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$471.70M
Year 2$566.04M
Year 3$679.25M
Year 4$815.10M
Year 5$978.12M
Terminal$14.39B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$393.08MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CAAP stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

CAAP trades at $25.58 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $66.87, implying +150% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of CAAP's future cash flows. The bear case ($42.30) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is CAAP's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $393M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $729M net debt and dividing by 0.16B shares: Bear $42.30 | Base $66.87 | Bull $103.04. Current price $25.58 implies +150% to base case.

How is CAAP's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($11.51B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.