MODEL VERDICT
Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $24.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $25.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $26.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $26.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $27.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $1.92 | -92.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $40.53 | +66.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $34.50 | +42.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $37.76 | +55.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $12.53 | -48.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $18.03 | -25.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $45.20 | +86.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $43.19 | +77.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $32.29 | +32.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $34.60 | +42.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.83 | +22.8% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $22 | $26 | $29 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $19 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $20 | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.86 | 10.69 | 8.31 | 165.75 | 77.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.74 | 9.09 | 7.29 | 10.27 | 1.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.75 | 6.11 | 4.50 | 32.80 | 10.25 |
| P/FCF | 7.23 | 7.45 | 5.03 | 9.47 | 1.62 |
| P/FFO | 7.25 | 6.31 | 4.65 | 14.60 | 3.69 |
| P/AFFO | 7.82 | 6.55 | 4.80 | 16.60 | 4.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.51 | 1.20 | 0.79 | 3.21 | 0.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.05 | 0.62 | 1.85 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAAP's fair value at $29.83 vs the current price of $24.29, implying +22.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.65 (P10) to $43.19 (P90), with a median of $29.87.
CAAP's current P/E of 13.8x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -29.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.9x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
6 analysts cover CAAP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $31.00 — $31.00), implying +27.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CAAP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 30420.0% to approximately $98. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.