MODEL VERDICT
Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $473.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $495.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $483.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $507.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $476.32 | Below threshold | +5.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $222.30 | -53.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $213.72 | -54.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $188.21 | -60.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $232.49 | -50.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $386.27 | -18.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $277.31 | -41.4% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $406 | $446 | $487 | $527 | $568 |
| Conservative (5%) | $417 | $459 | $501 | $543 | $584 |
| Base Case (-10.5%) | $356 | $391 | $427 | $463 | $498 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $342 | $376 | $410 | $444 | $478 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.00 | 12.99 | 11.55 | 24.23 | 5.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.79 | 15.15 | 12.48 | 34.95 | 9.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.72 | 14.64 | 12.22 | 32.19 | 8.30 |
| P/FCF | 7.80 | 6.36 | 5.15 | 10.99 | 2.74 |
| P/FFO | 15.01 | 12.56 | 11.25 | 22.17 | 4.66 |
| P/TBV | 3.25 | 3.35 | 1.32 | 6.07 | 1.66 |
| P/AFFO | 15.28 | 13.12 | 11.33 | 22.45 | 4.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.25 | 3.35 | 1.32 | 6.07 | 1.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.46 | 3.73 | 2.74 | 5.98 | 1.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CACC's fair value at $277.31 vs the current price of $473.18, implying -41.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $277.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $238.21 (P10) to $366.80 (P90), with a median of $300.55.
CACC's current P/E of 23.8x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +112.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover CACC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $480.00 (range: $460.00 — $500.00), implying +1.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (12), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CACC trades at the 8050th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CACC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8390.0% to approximately $870. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.