MODEL VERDICT
Cadence Bank (CADE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $42.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $42.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $42.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $42.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $42.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $39.21 | -6.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $38.32 | -9.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $38.22 | -9.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $39.28 | -6.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $39.21 | -6.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $37.19 | -11.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.53 | -8.5% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $31 | $37 | $42 | $48 | $54 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $38 | $44 | $49 | $55 |
| Base Case (3.8%) | $32 | $37 | $43 | $49 | $55 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $32 | $38 | $44 | $49 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.89 | 12.44 | 10.02 | 19.34 | 3.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.97 | 13.21 | 6.95 | 18.09 | 3.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.72 | 10.14 | 5.34 | 23.40 | 5.75 |
| P/FCF | 11.15 | 11.61 | 3.27 | 18.06 | 5.74 |
| P/FFO | 8.96 | 9.35 | 6.33 | 11.53 | 1.82 |
| P/TBV | 1.52 | 1.55 | 0.99 | 1.78 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 10.78 | 11.95 | 7.28 | 14.38 | 2.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 1.06 | 0.69 | 1.19 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.65 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CADE's fair value at $38.53 vs the current price of $42.11, implying -8.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.50 (P10) to $39.61 (P90), with a median of $37.01.
CADE's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +7.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
20 analysts cover CADE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.75 (range: $30.00 — $47.00), implying -5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CADE trades at the 7100th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CADE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 90.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.