MODEL VERDICT
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $14.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $23.73 | +68.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $31.40 | +123.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $45.23 | +221.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $34.42 | +144.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $30.91 | +119.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $43.96 | +212.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $49.72 | +253.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $23.35 | +66.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $24.94 | +77.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $45.23 | +221.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $34.42 | +144.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.78 | +154.5% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $10 | $10 | $15 | $20 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $10 | $15 | $20 | $25 |
| Base Case (7.0%) | $10 | $10 | $15 | $21 | $26 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $11 | $11 | $16 | $21 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.48 | 21.03 | 7.18 | 38.54 | 9.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.24 | 17.79 | 10.49 | 21.32 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.70 | 15.99 | 9.42 | 17.43 | 2.98 |
| P/FCF | 15.94 | 17.32 | 6.36 | 26.18 | 7.33 |
| P/FFO | 12.91 | 14.42 | 5.37 | 17.81 | 4.09 |
| P/AFFO | 20.77 | 20.61 | 7.18 | 37.00 | 9.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.77 | 1.93 | 0.93 | 2.23 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 1.62 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAG's fair value at $35.78 vs the current price of $14.06, implying +154.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.64 (P10) to $39.84 (P90), with a median of $35.17.
CAG's current P/E of 5.8x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -68.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover CAG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.55 (range: $15.00 — $22.00), implying +24.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (15), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CAG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.6σ, meaning margins are 2.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2265350.0% to approximately $3199. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.