MODEL VERDICT
CarGurus, Inc. (CARG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $37.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $37.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $36.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $35.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $34.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $28.68 | -22.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $27.86 | -24.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $18.93 | -48.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $61.44 | +65.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $28.88 | -22.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $79.16 | +113.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $20.92 | -43.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $6.87 | -81.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $2.96 | -92.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $18.93 | -48.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $61.44 | +65.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.54 | +36.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $33 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
| Conservative (12%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Base Case (17.9%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $51 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $39 | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 80.94 | 70.87 | 9.28 | 182.70 | 66.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.07 | 25.50 | 12.50 | 116.55 | 38.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.17 | 32.82 | 8.44 | 97.27 | 37.23 |
| P/FCF | 31.04 | 24.21 | 7.52 | 71.40 | 21.98 |
| P/FFO | 41.81 | 34.67 | 7.18 | 83.81 | 29.57 |
| P/TBV | 9.29 | 9.01 | 3.20 | 16.79 | 4.25 |
| P/AFFO | 41.85 | 35.12 | 7.35 | 102.96 | 33.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.84 | 7.17 | 2.33 | 15.54 | 4.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.27 | 4.14 | 1.08 | 6.78 | 1.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CARG's fair value at $50.54 vs the current price of $37.04, implying +36.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.90 (P10) to $72.49 (P90), with a median of $55.15.
CARG's current P/E of 23.9x compares to the industry median of 12.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +95.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 80.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover CARG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.42 (range: $33.50 — $45.00), implying +1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.6% is 8.2 percentage points above the 6-year average (12.5%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$95. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CARG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15560.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.