MODEL VERDICT
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $685.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $667.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $665.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $653.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $593.80 | Below threshold | +11.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $368.52 | -46.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $397.83 | -42.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $428.30 | -37.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $361.00 | -47.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $297.56 | -56.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $279.53 | -59.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $155.78 | -77.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $662.98 | -3.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $577.48 | -15.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $428.31 | -37.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $362.15 | -47.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $363.65 | -47.0% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $607 | $669 | $731 | $793 | $855 |
| Conservative (10%) | $629 | $693 | $758 | $822 | $887 |
| Base Case (15.6%) | $660 | $728 | $795 | $863 | $931 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $691 | $762 | $833 | $903 | $974 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.51 | 25.16 | 23.07 | 37.75 | 5.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.62 | 20.15 | 18.15 | 29.22 | 3.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.72 | 12.37 | 11.68 | 19.39 | 2.77 |
| P/FCF | 40.57 | 35.30 | 18.13 | 101.66 | 28.61 |
| P/FFO | 14.92 | 13.11 | 12.75 | 21.72 | 3.41 |
| P/TBV | 5.64 | 5.15 | 4.16 | 9.48 | 1.83 |
| P/AFFO | 57.88 | 46.49 | 26.45 | 109.73 | 29.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.35 | 4.04 | 3.74 | 5.88 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 1.29 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CASY's fair value at $363.65 vs the current price of $685.59, implying -47.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $363.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $348.76 (P10) to $487.13 (P90), with a median of $417.13.
CASY's current P/E of 46.8x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +60.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover CASY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $630.91 (range: $530.00 — $730.00), implying -8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 3.6% is 0.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (4.4%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$495. (2) Multiple compression: CASY trades at the 7220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CASY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2780.0% to approximately $495. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.