MODEL VERDICT
Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $63.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $62.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $63.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $61.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $62.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $53.66 | -15.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $40.52 | -36.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $27.15 | -57.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $57.46 | -9.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $53.66 | -15.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $50.21 | -21.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.82 | -15.4% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $49 | $57 | $65 | $73 | $81 |
| Conservative (5%) | $50 | $59 | $67 | $75 | $84 |
| Base Case (5.3%) | $50 | $59 | $67 | $75 | $84 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $51 | $60 | $68 | $77 | $85 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.35 | 20.23 | 14.43 | 21.96 | 2.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.22 | 17.19 | 9.94 | 20.05 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.41 | 15.33 | 8.65 | 17.16 | 3.52 |
| P/FCF | 17.03 | 16.92 | 13.34 | 21.42 | 3.21 |
| P/FFO | 16.58 | 17.01 | 13.64 | 18.43 | 1.76 |
| P/TBV | 3.59 | 3.50 | 2.64 | 5.26 | 0.83 |
| P/AFFO | 18.53 | 18.95 | 16.60 | 19.76 | 1.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.58 | 2.20 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.76 | 4.86 | 3.47 | 6.39 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBU's fair value at $53.82 vs the current price of $63.62, implying -15.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.75 (P10) to $58.83 (P90), with a median of $55.22.
CBU's current P/E of 16.0x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +18.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
12 analysts cover CBU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $68.50 (range: $62.00 — $75.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CBU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3070.0% to approximately $83. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.