MODEL VERDICT
Coastal Financial Corporation (CCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $72.86 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $76.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $82.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $83.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $83.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $40.30 | -44.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $36.97 | -49.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $44.59 | -38.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $40.36 | -44.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $45.52 | -37.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.92 | -26.0% | 100% | 75 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $66 | $72 | $79 | $85 | $92 |
| Conservative (13%) | $69 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (19.6%) | $73 | $80 | $87 | $95 | $102 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $77 | $85 | $92 | $100 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.26 | 16.94 | 13.58 | 37.69 | 8.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.43 | 10.28 | 3.09 | 29.30 | 9.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.96 | 9.66 | 2.97 | 29.30 | 9.50 |
| P/FCF | 11.84 | 9.99 | 3.27 | 23.26 | 7.53 |
| P/FFO | 19.49 | 15.54 | 12.91 | 33.09 | 7.29 |
| P/TBV | 2.52 | 2.64 | 1.62 | 3.64 | 0.73 |
| P/AFFO | 23.22 | 23.03 | 14.90 | 39.28 | 8.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.51 | 2.64 | 1.62 | 3.61 | 0.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 2.77 | 1.38 | 6.01 | 1.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCB's fair value at $53.92 vs the current price of $72.86, implying -26.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.23 (P10) to $60.38 (P90), with a median of $53.15.
CCB's current P/E of 24.0x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +80.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover CCB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $132.50 (range: $110.00 — $155.00), implying +81.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CCB trades at the 9540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10100.0% to approximately $146. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.