Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$329.88
→
Intrinsic$140.35
-57%
$88.34$140.35$243.69
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $88 → Bull $244. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $244).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $183 | $199 | $216 | $234 |
| 10% | $118 | $129 | $140 | $152 |
| 12% | $84 | $92 | $101 | $109 |
| 14% | $64 | $70 | $76 | $83 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($244) with 30% growth, 8% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($88) implies 73% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 57% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($244) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.61B
Year 2$2.01B
Year 3$2.52B
Year 4$3.14B
Year 5$3.93B
Terminal$62.29B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.29BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.