MODEL VERDICT
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $329.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $294.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $288.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $271.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $342.52 | Below threshold | -20.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $313.90 | -4.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $174.20 | -47.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $51.94 | -84.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $329.88 | +0.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $214.82 | -34.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $229.38 | -30.5% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $249.61 | -24.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $485.56 | +47.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $282.56 | -14.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $243.92 | -26.1% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $310 | $343 | $376 | $410 | $443 |
| Conservative (21%) | $332 | $368 | $404 | $440 | $475 |
| Base Case (32.6%) | $363 | $402 | $442 | $481 | $520 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $395 | $437 | $480 | $523 | $565 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.96 | 23.33 | 18.80 | 47.74 | 15.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.52 | 28.13 | 17.75 | 68.06 | 22.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.54 | 11.42 | 10.76 | 28.54 | 8.67 |
| P/FCF | 45.99 | 37.65 | 14.20 | 86.12 | 36.68 |
| P/FFO | 16.53 | 11.70 | 9.15 | 33.57 | 11.44 |
| P/TBV | 4.76 | 4.43 | 2.50 | 7.69 | 2.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.63 | 4.28 | 2.49 | 7.47 | 2.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.50 | 2.25 | 1.16 | 4.34 | 1.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates CEG's fair value at $243.92 vs the current price of $329.88, implying -26.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $243.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $201.63 (P10) to $274.28 (P90), with a median of $237.00.
CEG's current P/E of 44.6x compares to the industry median of 42.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +5.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.0x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover CEG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $415.83 (range: $390.00 — $460.00), implying +26.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CEG trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CEG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (5.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5870.0% to approximately $136. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.