Upside case
Bull case
$490+53.0%
CEG would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
14 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering CEG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$405
+26.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $490
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $100.1B
CEG price targets
Three scenarios for where CEG stock could go
Current
~$320
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $320
Base
$474
Bull
$490
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$474+48.0%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Constellation Energy Corporation
CEG · NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesDecember year-end
Constellation Energy is a major clean energy company that generates and sells electricity—primarily from nuclear, wind, and solar assets—across multiple U.S. power regions. It makes money by selling electricity and natural gas to utilities, municipalities, and commercial/industrial customers, with its nuclear fleet providing stable baseload power. The company's key advantage is its massive, low-carbon generation portfolio—including the nation's largest nuclear fleet—which gives it scale and operational efficiency in the transition to clean energy.
Market Cap
$100.1B
Revenue TTM
$25.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.3B
Net Margin
9.1%
CEG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+16.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.14/$2.18
Revenue
$6.8B/$5.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.84
Revenue
$6.1B/$4.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.04/$3.11
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.30/$2.28
Revenue
$6.1B/$5.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.14/$2.18 | -1.8% | $6.8B/$5.6B | +22.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.91/$1.84 | +3.8% | $6.1B/$4.9B | +24.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.04/$3.11 | -2.3% | $6.6B/$6.2B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.30/$2.28 | +0.9% | $6.1B/$5.6B | +8.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.1B
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$29.7B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.59
+29.8% YoY
FY2
$10.95
+14.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 5.0%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.43
Expected Revenue
$8.5B
CEG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
CEG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Constellation Mid Atlantic
29.3%
+17.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Constellation Mid Atlantic
29.3%
+17.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Constellation Mid Atlantic is the largest disclosed segment at 29.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 17.5% YoY.
Constellation Mid Atlantic is the largest reported region at 29.3%, up 17.5% YoY.
CEG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $209 — implies -32.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
32.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CEG
43.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+72% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
CEG
43.3x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
+116% premium
vs CEG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
43.3x
vs
5Y Average
30.0x
+45% premium
Forward PE
27.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+45%
Utilities
17.5x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
43.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
+72%
Utilities
20.1x
+116%
5Y Avg
30.0x
+45%
PEG Ratio
1.33x
S&P 500
1.72x
-23%
Utilities
1.69x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+70%
Utilities
11.4x
+128%
5Y Avg
15.5x
+67%
Price/FCF
77.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+269%
Utilities
15.1x
+416%
5Y Avg
46.0x
+69%
Price/Sales
3.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+25%
Utilities
2.2x
+82%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+57%
Dividend Yield
0.48%
S&P 500
1.87%
-74%
Utilities
3.06%
-84%
5Y Avg
0.67%
-28%
| Metric | CEG | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg CEG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.6x | 19.1x+45% | 17.5x+58% | — |
| Trailing PE | 43.3x | 25.1x+72% | 20.1x+116% | 30.0x+45% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.33x | 1.72x-23% | 1.69x-21% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.9x | 15.2x+70% | 11.4x+128% | 15.5x+67% |
| Price/FCF | 77.7x | 21.1x+269% | 15.1x+416% | 46.0x+69% |
| Price/Sales | 3.9x | 3.1x+25% | 2.2x+82% | 2.5x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.48% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 0.67% |
CEG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCEG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CEG earns 12.1% operating margin on regulated earnings, 0.5% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.39
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
12.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.1× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$400M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
314M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageCEG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & policy risk
Changes to nuclear subsidies, clean‑energy incentives, or the imposition of price caps could reduce Constellation's margins. Negative rulings or policy reversals would directly limit the rates the company can charge for its energy infrastructure.
High Risk
Nuclear operational risk
The company's nuclear fleet, while historically high‑capacity, is vulnerable to unexpected outages or extended maintenance. A low‑probability, high‑impact event could halt generation and cause sizable revenue shortfalls.
High Risk
Market & economic volatility
Earnings are sensitive to electricity and commodity price swings, especially natural‑gas price movements. During sovereign or geopolitical crises, Constellation has recorded average stock declines of about ‑47%, indicating heightened exposure to macro shocks.
Medium
Project execution delays
Delays in transmission projects or in restarting assets such as the Three Mile Island plant for the Microsoft contract could curb supply growth and erode investor confidence, especially given growth expectations baked into the share price.
Medium
Financial valuation pressure
Constellation trades at a forward P/E of roughly 43.8×, well above the peer average of 24.5×. The elevated multiple leaves little margin for earnings weakness or sentiment shifts, raising the risk of a valuation correction.
Medium
Acquisition integration risk
The integration of large deals such as the Calpine acquisition may encounter execution hurdles, including potential revenue loss from required asset divestitures and non‑cash depreciation drag from purchase accounting.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CEG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Surging Electricity Demand
U.S. electricity demand is projected to rise sharply, driven in part by the expansion of data centers. Estimates suggest data centers could consume as much as 12% of domestic electricity by 2028, creating a robust demand tail for power providers like Constellation.
Largest U.S. Nuclear Operator
Constellation operates 21 nuclear reactors, making it the largest nuclear power operator in the United States. Nuclear’s zero‑carbon emissions and reliable baseload power are especially attractive to hyperscalers seeking clean, dependable energy.
Strategic Capacity Expansion
The company is boosting capacity through initiatives such as restarting the Crane Clean Energy Center, adding capacity to the Clinton Clean Energy Center, and extending licenses and upgrading existing reactors. These efforts aim to add significant megawatts of capacity over the next five years.
High‑Quality Long‑Term PPAs
Constellation has secured power purchase agreements with major hyperscalers, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms. These long‑term contracts provide stable, high‑quality revenue streams and demonstrate the company’s ability to lock in premium customers.
Strong Financial Outlook
The company targets base earnings‑per‑share growth of 20% or more through 2029, with analysts projecting continued earnings and revenue growth. Constellation also plans to increase its annual dividend, underscoring confidence in future cash flows.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CEG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$320.42
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$243.30
+31.7% from the low
52-Week High
$412.70
-22.4% from the high
1 Month
+16.45%
3 Month
+29.69%
YTD
-12.5%
1 Year
+29.1%
3Y CAGR
+59.1%
5Y CAGR
+50.1%
10Y CAGR
+22.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CEG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.6x
vs 17.3x median
+59% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.0%
vs +9.1% median
+9% above peer median
Net Margin
9.1%
vs 5.6% median
+61% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CEG CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $100.1B | 27.6x | +10.0% | 9.1% | Buy | +26.5% |
VST VST Vistra Corp. | $54.3B | 18.7x | +9.7% | 5.6% | Buy | +41.9% |
NRG NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $30.0B | 17.2x | +9.1% | 2.8% | Buy | +23.2% |
TLN TLN Talen Energy Corporation | $17.6B | 17.5x | +26.6% | -0.7% | Buy | +23.6% |
CWE CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. | $8.0B | — | +6.3% | 11.8% | Buy | +12.2% |
AES AES The AES Corporation | $10.2B | 6.2x | +0.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +27.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CEG Dividend and Capital Return
CEG returns 0.9% total yield, led by a 0.48% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
0.48%
Payout Ratio
—
How CEG Splits Its Return
Div 0.48%
Buyback 0.4%
Dividend 0.48%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
40.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-21.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$400M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
314M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.55 | +10.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $1.41 | +25.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $1.13 | +100.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% |
| 2022 | $0.56 | — | 6.2% | 6.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsCEG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $405, implying +26.5% from the current price of $320.
02What is the CEG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CEG is $405 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $460 (+43.6% from today), and the low-end target is $358 (+11.7%). The base case model target is $474.
03Is Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) stock overvalued in 2026?
CEG trades at 27.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CEG in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & policy risk — Changes to nuclear subsidies, clean‑energy incentives, or the imposition of price caps could reduce Constellation's margins. (2) Nuclear operational risk — The company's nuclear fleet, while historically high‑capacity, is vulnerable to unexpected outages or extended maintenance. (3) Market & economic volatility — Earnings are sensitive to electricity and commodity price swings, especially natural‑gas price movements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Constellation Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CEG will report consensus revenue of $28.1B (+10.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.59 (+29.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.7B in revenue.
06When does Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) report its next earnings?
Constellation Energy Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.43 and revenue of $8.5B. Over recent quarters, CEG has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Constellation Energy Corporation generate?
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.0%. CEG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($400M TTM).