MODEL VERDICT
C&F Financial Corporation (CFFI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $122.90 | +55.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $103.81 | +31.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $123.31 | +55.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $122.90 | +55.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $111.87 | +41.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $105.10 | +32.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $51 | $68 | $85 | $102 | $119 |
| Conservative (5%) | $52 | $70 | $87 | $104 | $122 |
| Base Case (6.5%) | $53 | $71 | $88 | $106 | $124 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $54 | $72 | $90 | $108 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.60 | 8.76 | 6.12 | 11.86 | 2.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.34 | 7.80 | 0.19 | 12.11 | 4.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.60 | 6.72 | 0.17 | 10.53 | 3.70 |
| P/FCF | 4.13 | 4.29 | 1.21 | 6.72 | 2.76 |
| P/FFO | 7.26 | 7.26 | 5.15 | 9.92 | 1.93 |
| P/TBV | 1.08 | 1.17 | 0.81 | 1.27 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 8.63 | 8.68 | 6.45 | 11.64 | 1.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 1.04 | 0.70 | 1.16 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.38 | 1.41 | 0.91 | 1.66 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CFFI's fair value at $105.10 vs the current price of $79.16, implying +32.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $105.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $94.04 (P10) to $111.19 (P90), with a median of $102.43.
CFFI's current P/E of 9.5x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -35.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CFFI.
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CFFI trades at the 720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CFFI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.