Cognex Corporation (CGNX)
Valuation Overview•Is Cognex Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 72/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
CGNX demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($186M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.4% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 18.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $268.4M | +8.7% | -0.4% | +4.2% | +8.2% | |
| EBITDA | $59.9M | — | -10.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $51.7M | +7.8% | -19.0% | — | -4.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.31 | +9.7% | -17.9% | -7.4% | -4.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $42.3M | +76.6% | +1.9% | +0.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 68.0% | 69.0% | 70.4% | 72.6% |
| Operating Margin | 18.8% | 14.8% | 19.9% | 23.0% |
| Net Margin | 13.6% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
| FCF Margin | 23.0% | 16.4% | 20.0% | 24.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.25 | $0.34 | +36.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.22 | $0.27 | +22.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.27 | $0.33 | +22.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.23 | $0.25 | +8.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.13 | $0.16 | +23.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.15 | $0.20 | +33.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.19 | $0.20 | +5.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.21 | $0.23 | +9.5% |
Total return is +121.7% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +96.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +79.4% | +70.1% | — |
| 1Y | +121.7% | +96.7% | +1.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +6.9% | -13.3% | +1.7% |
| 5YCAGR | -2.7% | -15.9% | +1.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +12.7% | -1.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Cognex Corporation (CGNX) valuation, health, and returns.
Cognex Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -70.2% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $19.71)
Cognex Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $19.71 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $112.49 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $70.92 (implying +7.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Cognex Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 72/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 13.8 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.0%.
Cognex Corporation pays a 0.5% dividend yield, covered by a 48% payout ratio with 10 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.4% buyback yield.
Cognex Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.7% 1Y revenue growth and +9.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 31 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 9-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +7.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Cognex Corporation include: -28.1% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.64x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.64x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.