MODEL VERDICT
Cognex Corporation (CGNX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $55.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $54.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $55.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $54.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $53.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $46.87 | -16.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $27.45 | -50.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $39.02 | -30.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $100.73 | +80.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $36.66 | -34.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $101.50 | +81.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $32.34 | -42.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $29.52 | -47.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $38.51 | -31.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $67.45 | +20.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.46 | -2.6% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 68× | 75× | 82× (Current) | 89× | 96× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $52 | $57 | $62 | $67 |
| Conservative (5%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| Base Case (-7.4%) | $43 | $47 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $59 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.96 | 52.91 | 38.30 | 80.29 | 13.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 53.37 | 55.38 | 30.14 | 67.80 | 14.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.32 | 41.24 | 30.45 | 70.73 | 13.72 |
| P/FCF | 48.64 | 46.18 | 25.74 | 80.56 | 17.83 |
| P/FFO | 47.80 | 44.58 | 35.03 | 69.95 | 11.23 |
| P/TBV | 8.76 | 7.25 | 5.94 | 14.14 | 3.17 |
| P/AFFO | 52.70 | 49.14 | 38.23 | 74.87 | 12.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.71 | 5.73 | 4.08 | 11.23 | 2.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.61 | 8.64 | 6.13 | 17.48 | 4.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CGNX's fair value at $54.46 vs the current price of $55.94, implying -2.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.69 (P10) to $62.14 (P90), with a median of $53.25.
CGNX's current P/E of 82.3x compares to the industry median of 57.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +43.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover CGNX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $60.22 (range: $50.00 — $70.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CGNX trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (56.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CGNX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1570.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.