Upside case
Bull case
$76+14.9%
CGNX would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 45x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 31 covering CGNX
Strong Buy
1
Buy
14
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$71
+7.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $76
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.0B
CGNX price targets
Three scenarios for where CGNX stock could go
Current
~$66
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $66
Bear
$36
Base
$58
Bull
$76
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$58-12.8%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-45.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 20x multiple contraction could push CGNX down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cognex Corporation
CGNX · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsDecember year-end
Cognex Corporation is a machine vision technology company that provides systems and software to automate manufacturing and distribution processes through visual inspection and analysis. It generates revenue primarily from hardware sales of vision systems and sensors (~70%) and software licensing (~30%), serving industries like consumer electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise, extensive patent portfolio, and established relationships with major manufacturers who rely on its reliable, high-precision vision solutions.
Market Cap
$11.0B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$143M
Net Margin
13.6%
CGNX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+18.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.25/$0.23
Revenue
$249M/$248M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.33/$0.27
Revenue
$277M/$239M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.22
Revenue
$252M/$239M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.34/$0.25
Revenue
$268M/$246M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.25/$0.23 | +8.7% | $249M/$248M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.33/$0.27 | +22.2% | $277M/$239M | +15.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.27/$0.22 | +22.7% | $252M/$239M | +5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.34/$0.25 | +36.9% | $268M/$246M | +9.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$1.2B
+7.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.12
+32.8% YoY
FY2
$1.28
+14.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$241M
FCF Margin: 23.0%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.42
Expected Revenue
$292M
CGNX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CGNX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $994M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Standard Product and Services
88.5%
+10.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
41.0%
+16.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Standard Product and Services is the largest disclosed segment at 88.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.6% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 41.0%, up 16.3% YoY.
CGNX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $112 — implies +70.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
70.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CGNX
97.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+298% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CGNX
97.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+235% premium
vs CGNX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
97.2x
vs
5Y Average
52.6x
+85% premium
Forward PE
44.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+137%
Technology
22.3x
+100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
97.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+298%
Technology
29.0x
+235%
5Y Avg
52.6x
+85%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
56.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+269%
Technology
16.6x
+238%
5Y Avg
38.0x
+48%
Price/FCF
46.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+125%
Technology
19.2x
+143%
5Y Avg
47.2x
-1%
Price/Sales
11.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+259%
Technology
2.4x
+355%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+28%
Dividend Yield
0.49%
S&P 500
1.91%
-74%
Technology
1.11%
-56%
5Y Avg
0.66%
-26%
| Metric | CGNX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CGNX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.5x | 18.8x+137% | 22.3x+100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 97.2x | 24.4x+298% | 29.0x+235% | 52.6x+85% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.1x | 15.2x+269% | 16.6x+238% | 38.0x+48% |
| Price/FCF | 46.6x | 20.7x+125% | 19.2x+143% | 47.2x |
| Price/Sales | 11.1x | 3.1x+259% | 2.4x+355% | 8.6x+28% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.66% |
CGNX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCGNX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CGNX generates $241M in free cash flow at a 23.0% margin — returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$241M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$263M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$186M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$151M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
167M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCGNX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation Risk
Consensus target price implies limited upside potential (+8.4%) compared to current trading levels.
High Risk
Competitive AI Pressure
Rapid advancements in AI-powered machine vision solutions by competitors could erode Cognex's market share.
Medium
Earnings Volatility
Projected share price fluctuations ($88.62-$92.24 by 2026) suggest uncertainty in earnings growth and market conditions.
Lower
Dependence on Automation
Cognex's performance is tied to cyclical demand in industrial automation, which may slow during economic downturns.
High Risk
Technology Disruption
Failure to keep pace with AI and edge computing innovations could render existing products obsolete.
Medium
Analyst Sentiment Shift
While some analysts are bullish (e.g., JPMorgan upgrade), consensus targets remain conservative, indicating mixed sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CGNX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI-driven machine vision leadership
Cognex is showcasing advanced AI-powered vision systems like In-Sight® 3900 and OneVision™, combining edge AI with centralized development for smarter automation solutions.
Strong analyst consensus upside
Wall Street analysts project an 8.4% upside potential with a $70.92 consensus price target, reflecting confidence in Cognex's growth trajectory.
JPMorgan upgrade catalyst
JPMorgan upgraded Cognex to Overweight, citing progress in AI-powered machine vision solutions and an evolving sales strategy as key growth drivers.
Industrial automation tailwinds
With 40+ years of experience, Cognex enables manufacturing efficiency through vision/barcode solutions that improve quality, traceability, and automation intelligence.
Innovation pipeline strength
Continuous delivery of new AI vision products addresses automation challenges with high accuracy, reinforcing Cognex's technological leadership in machine vision.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CGNX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$66.10
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.22
+126.2% from the low
52-Week High
$71.90
-8.1% from the high
1 Month
+6.78%
3 Month
+32.54%
YTD
+79.0%
1 Year
+120.6%
3Y CAGR
+6.4%
5Y CAGR
-3.2%
10Y CAGR
+11.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CGNX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.5x
vs 43.3x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +5.8% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
13.6%
vs 0.4% median
+3286% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CGN CGNX Cognex Corporation | $11.0B | 44.5x | +6.7% | 13.6% | Buy | +7.3% |
KEY KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $62.4B | 35.7x | +6.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +7.1% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $3.3B | 119.3x | +3.3% | -11.5% | Buy | -28.3% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $10.9B | 50.3x | +6.1% | -4.0% | Buy | -31.6% |
NOV NOVT Novanta Inc. | $5.5B | 43.3x | +5.8% | 5.3% | Buy | +15.9% |
KLI KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | $6.4B | 35.7x | +1.7% | 0.4% | Buy | -42.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CGNX Dividend and Capital Return
CGNX returns capital mainly through $151M/year in buybacks (1.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.49% dividend — combining for 1.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
0.49%
Payout Ratio
47.7%
How CGNX Splits Its Return
Div 0.49%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 0.49%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-31.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$151M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
167M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.33 | +6.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $0.30 | +7.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| 2023 | $0.29 | +7.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $0.27 | +8.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsCGNX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cognex Corporation (CGNX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $71, implying +7.3% from the current price of $66. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $76.
02What is the CGNX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CGNX is $71 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+21.0% from today), and the low-end target is $61 (-7.7%). The base case model target is $58.
03Is Cognex Corporation (CGNX) stock overvalued in 2026?
CGNX trades at 44.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cognex Corporation (CGNX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CGNX in 2026 are: (1) Competitive AI Pressure — Rapid advancements in AI-powered machine vision solutions by competitors could erode Cognex's market share. (2) Technology Disruption — Failure to keep pace with AI and edge computing innovations could render existing products obsolete. (3) Valuation Risk — Consensus target price implies limited upside potential (+8. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cognex Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CGNX will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.12 (+32.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.2B in revenue.
06When does Cognex Corporation (CGNX) report its next earnings?
Cognex Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $292M. Over recent quarters, CGNX has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cognex Corporation generate?
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) generated $241M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.0%. CGNX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($151M TTM).