Upside case
Bull case
$204+228.4%
CGNX would need investors to value it at roughly 165x earnings — about 114x more generous than today's 50x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 31 covering CGNX
Strong Buy
1
Buy
13
Hold
15
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
-3.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$48 – $204
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
50.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.4B
CGNX price targets
Three scenarios for where CGNX stock could go
Current
~$62
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $62
Bear
$48
Base
$95
Bull
$204
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$95+52.8%
At 77x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$48-22.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push CGNX down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cognex Corporation
CGNX · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsDecember year-end
Cognex Corporation is a machine vision technology company that provides systems and software to automate manufacturing and distribution processes through visual inspection and analysis. It generates revenue primarily from hardware sales of vision systems and sensors (~70%) and software licensing (~30%), serving industries like consumer electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise, extensive patent portfolio, and established relationships with major manufacturers who rely on its reliable, high-precision vision solutions.
Market Cap
$10.4B
Revenue TTM
$994M
Net Income TTM
$114M
Net Margin
11.5%
CGNX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.13
Revenue
$216M/$249M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.25/$0.23
Revenue
$249M/$248M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.33/$0.27
Revenue
$277M/$239M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.22
Revenue
$252M/$239M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.16/$0.13 | +23.1% | $216M/$249M | -13.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.25/$0.23 | +8.7% | $249M/$248M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.33/$0.27 | +22.2% | $277M/$239M | +15.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.27/$0.22 | +22.7% | $252M/$239M | +5.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.0B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$1.1B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.94
+45.0% YoY
FY2
$1.04
+10.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$237M
FCF Margin: 23.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.25
Expected Revenue
$245M
CGNX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CGNX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $994M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Standard Product and Services
88.5%
+10.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
41.0%
+16.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Standard Product and Services is the largest disclosed segment at 88.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.6% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 41.0%, up 16.3% YoY.
CGNX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $54 — implies -2.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CGNX
91.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+263% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CGNX
91.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+233% premium
vs CGNX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
91.6x
vs
5Y Average
52.6x
+74% premium
Forward PE
50.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+163%
Technology
21.7x
+131%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
91.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+263%
Technology
27.5x
+233%
5Y Avg
52.6x
+74%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
52.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+246%
Technology
17.4x
+204%
5Y Avg
38.0x
+39%
Price/FCF
43.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+106%
Technology
19.8x
+122%
5Y Avg
47.2x
-7%
Price/Sales
10.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+234%
Technology
2.4x
+333%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+21%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
S&P 500
1.88%
-72%
Technology
1.18%
-56%
5Y Avg
0.66%
-21%
| Metric | CGNX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CGNX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 50.1x | 19.1x+163% | 21.7x+131% | — |
| Trailing PE | 91.6x | 25.2x+263% | 27.5x+233% | 52.6x+74% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.8x | 15.3x+246% | 17.4x+204% | 38.0x+39% |
| Price/FCF | 43.9x | 21.3x+106% | 19.8x+122% | 47.2x |
| Price/Sales | 10.5x | 3.1x+234% | 2.4x+333% | 8.6x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 0.66% |
CGNX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCGNX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CGNX generates $237M in free cash flow at a 23.8% margin — returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$994M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
66.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$237M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$263M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$186M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$151M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
167M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCGNX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
The machine vision market is highly dynamic, characterized by rapid technological changes and increasing competition. Cognex's ability to maintain its market share and profitability hinges on its capacity to consistently introduce new products with enhanced functionality.
High Risk
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Cognex relies significantly on third-party contractors for manufacturing, which exposes it to supply chain vulnerabilities. Past incidents, such as a fire at a primary contract manufacturer's plant, underscore the risks associated with this reliance.
High Risk
Geopolitical Uncertainties
Cognex's operations and supply chain are vulnerable to geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, which can disrupt business operations and impact financial performance.
Medium
Economic Volatility
The company's financial results are susceptible to seasonal and cyclical variations in customer purchasing patterns, as well as broader economic volatility, including interest rate hikes and inflation.
Medium
Profitability Concerns
Cognex has experienced shrinking adjusted operating margins and declining free cash flow margins over the past five years. The decreasing return on invested capital (ROIC) indicates potential challenges in generating profitable growth.
Medium
Sales Cycle Limitations
Cognex's short sales cycle limits visibility into future growth, making its growth trajectory vulnerable to market shifts or slowdowns.
Lower
Strategic Decisions
The recent sale of its Japan-focused trading business raises concerns about a smaller revenue base and potentially limited future growth opportunities.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analysts consider Cognex's stock to be 'Modestly Overvalued' based on current valuation metrics, despite the company's strong financial health.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CGNX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI and Machine Vision Leadership
Cognex is a leading provider of machine vision systems, software, sensors, and industrial barcode readers used in manufacturing and logistics automation. Their focus on AI is seen as a significant growth driver.
Revenue Growth and Stability
The company's AI-powered vision and broader market mix are expected to support revenue stability and pricing power. Recent Q4 earnings showed robust revenue, surpassing analyst forecasts, and Q1 projections are also higher than consensus estimates.
Margin Expansion
Efforts in cost control, operating leverage, and share buybacks are aimed at widening profit margins. The company has also demonstrated strong EBITDA growth and free cash flow generation.
Analyst Confidence
Cognex has a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy' or 'Buy' from analysts, with a significant portion recommending 'Strong Buy.' The average price target suggests potential upside from the current stock price.
Financial Health and Dividend
Cognex has a healthy and sustainable dividend payout ratio, and has been increasing its dividend for 10 years.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CGNX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$62.26
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$27.61
+125.5% from the low
52-Week High
$63.01
-1.2% from the high
1 Month
+25.73%
3 Month
+46.94%
YTD
+68.6%
1 Year
+123.7%
3Y CAGR
+7.9%
5Y CAGR
-4.6%
10Y CAGR
+11.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CGNX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
50.1x
vs 41.2x median
+22% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +3.7% median
+92% above peer median
Net Margin
11.5%
vs 5.5% median
+110% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CGN CGNX Cognex Corporation | $10.4B | 50.1x | +7.0% | 11.5% | Hold | -3.3% |
KEY KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $62.9B | 41.2x | +7.7% | 16.9% | Buy | -21.1% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $2.3B | 93.2x | +0.8% | -11.5% | Buy | +0.3% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $12.3B | 57.3x | +3.7% | -4.0% | Buy | -39.2% |
NOV NOVT Novanta Inc. | $5.0B | 39.0x | +5.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
KLI KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | $4.9B | 35.7x | -3.9% | 7.2% | Buy | -33.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CGNX Dividend and Capital Return
CGNX returns capital mainly through $151M/year in buybacks (1.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.52% dividend — combining for 2.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
Payout Ratio
47.7%
How CGNX Splits Its Return
Div 0.52%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 0.52%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-31.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$151M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
167M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.33 | +6.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $0.30 | +7.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| 2023 | $0.29 | +7.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $0.27 | +8.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsCGNX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cognex Corporation (CGNX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying -3.3% from the current price of $62. The bear case scenario is $48 and the bull case is $204.
02What is the CGNX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CGNX is $60 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $70 (+12.4% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-19.7%). The base case model target is $95.
03Is Cognex Corporation (CGNX) stock overvalued in 2026?
CGNX trades at 50.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cognex Corporation (CGNX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CGNX in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Landscape — The machine vision market is highly dynamic, characterized by rapid technological changes and increasing competition. (2) Supply Chain Vulnerabilities — Cognex relies significantly on third-party contractors for manufacturing, which exposes it to supply chain vulnerabilities. (3) Geopolitical Uncertainties — Cognex's operations and supply chain are vulnerable to geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, which can disrupt business operations and impact financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cognex Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CGNX will report consensus revenue of $1.0B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.94 (+45.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.1B in revenue.
06When does Cognex Corporation (CGNX) report its next earnings?
Cognex Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.25 and revenue of $245M. Over recent quarters, CGNX has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cognex Corporation generate?
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) generated $237M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. CGNX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($151M TTM).