MODEL VERDICT
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $114.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $134.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $136.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $134.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $135.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $333.28 | +191.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $330.20 | +188.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $341.33 | +198.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $312.55 | +172.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $254.45 | +122.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $326.11 | +184.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $126.42 | +10.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $178.73 | +56.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $178.43 | +55.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $343.66 | +200.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $308.91 | +169.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $274.13 | +139.4% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $80 | $100 | $120 | $140 | $160 |
| Conservative (7%) | $82 | $102 | $123 | $143 | $164 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $85 | $106 | $127 | $148 | $169 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $87 | $109 | $131 | $153 | $175 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.11 | 20.43 | 19.17 | 25.03 | 2.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.73 | 18.82 | 16.92 | 24.74 | 2.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.16 | 18.54 | 16.37 | 22.26 | 2.21 |
| P/FCF | 16.48 | 16.53 | 13.16 | 20.59 | 2.35 |
| P/FFO | 19.99 | 19.86 | 17.74 | 22.78 | 1.76 |
| P/TBV | 14.18 | 9.76 | 6.63 | 26.71 | 8.30 |
| P/AFFO | 20.49 | 20.49 | 18.16 | 23.39 | 1.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.93 | 5.44 | 4.73 | 7.59 | 1.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.84 | 7.49 | 6.84 | 9.14 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHKP's fair value at $274.13 vs the current price of $114.51, implying +139.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $274.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $216.02 (P10) to $335.34 (P90), with a median of $274.70.
CHKP's current P/E of 11.9x compares to the industry median of 35.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -66.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
63 analysts cover CHKP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $153.94 (range: $120.00 — $220.00), implying +34.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (30), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHKP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7030.0% to approximately $195. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.