MODEL VERDICT
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $152.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $159.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $171.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $180.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $192.67 | Below threshold | -5.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $164.69 | +8.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $141.56 | -6.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $171.39 | +12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $132.87 | -12.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $135.03 | -11.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $150.33 | -1.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $63.55 | -58.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $80.03 | -47.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $65.73 | -56.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $193.01 | +26.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $138.38 | -9.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $153.74 | +1.1% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $122 | $138 | $153 | $168 | $184 |
| Conservative (5%) | $125 | $141 | $157 | $172 | $188 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $127 | $143 | $159 | $175 | $191 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $130 | $146 | $162 | $179 | $195 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.20 | 20.43 | 19.17 | 25.03 | 1.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.53 | 17.94 | 16.37 | 21.25 | 1.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.44 | 18.32 | 16.37 | 21.57 | 1.82 |
| P/FCF | 16.14 | 15.65 | 13.16 | 20.59 | 2.45 |
| P/FFO | 20.24 | 19.86 | 18.47 | 22.78 | 1.50 |
| P/TBV | 11.21 | 7.82 | 5.88 | 23.73 | 6.62 |
| P/AFFO | 20.73 | 20.49 | 18.82 | 23.39 | 1.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.54 | 5.44 | 4.34 | 7.59 | 1.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.99 | 8.25 | 6.84 | 9.14 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHKP's fair value at $153.74 vs the current price of $152.07, implying +1.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $153.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.08 (P10) to $175.68 (P90), with a median of $150.62.
CHKP's current P/E of 20.4x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -11.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
62 analysts cover CHKP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $207.93 (range: $180.00 — $240.00), implying +36.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (30), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHKP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 460.0% to approximately $159. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.