Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$152.07
→
Intrinsic$168.84
+11%
$116.86$168.84$267.66
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
CHKP appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $152, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $117 → Bull $268. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $199 | $217 | $236 | $257 |
| 10% | $143 | $156 | $169 | $183 |
| 12% | $112 | $122 | $131 | $142 |
| 14% | $93 | $100 | $108 | $116 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($268) offers 76% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- 10% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($117) implies 23% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.11B
Year 2$1.20B
Year 3$1.30B
Year 4$1.40B
Year 5$1.51B
Terminal$22.23B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.03BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.