MODEL VERDICT
Coherus Oncology, Inc. (CHRS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $5.87 | +185.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $5.30 | +157.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $6.16 | +199.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $6.32 | +206.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.56 | +218.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (5%) | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (-27.3%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| Bull Case (-37%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.30 | 10.73 | 5.52 | 14.64 | 4.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.74 | 8.46 | 5.43 | 12.33 | 3.46 |
| P/FFO | 9.81 | 10.58 | 4.69 | 14.15 | 4.78 |
| P/TBV | 10.33 | 12.79 | 5.23 | 12.96 | 4.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.00 | 12.32 | 5.16 | 12.52 | 4.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 56.20 | 3.05 | 0.59 | 378.26 | 142.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHRS's fair value at $6.56 vs the current price of $2.06, implying +218.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.59 (P10) to $14.92 (P90), with a median of $7.31.
CHRS's current P/E of 8.2x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -64.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover CHRS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.02 (range: $1.05 — $11.00), implying +192.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CHRS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.