MODEL VERDICT
Chime Financial, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CHYM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $22.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $22.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $23.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $1.44 | -93.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $2.82 | -87.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $2.79 | -87.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.02 | -90.9% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHYM's fair value at $2.02 vs the current price of $22.24, implying -90.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.41 (P10) to $2.93 (P90), with a median of $2.15.
CHYM's current P/E of -5.2x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -129.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover CHYM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.50 (range: $17.00 — $30.00), implying +19.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CHYM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.