MODEL VERDICT
Cigna Corporation (CI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $289.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $280.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $291.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $287.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $278.95 | Below threshold | +5.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $267.52 | -7.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $359.30 | +24.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $497.85 | +71.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $256.99 | -11.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $261.92 | -9.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1652.64 | +470.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $498.18 | +71.9% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $365.74 | +26.2% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $247 | $272 | $297 | $321 | $346 |
| Conservative (5%) | $255 | $280 | $305 | $331 | $356 |
| Base Case (-2.0%) | $238 | $261 | $285 | $309 | $333 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $236 | $259 | $283 | $306 | $330 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.05 | 15.48 | 9.07 | 22.78 | 4.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.30 | 12.60 | 10.59 | 17.57 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.83 | 10.82 | 9.19 | 18.93 | 3.30 |
| P/FCF | 10.92 | 9.21 | 8.29 | 14.45 | 2.78 |
| P/FFO | 11.98 | 12.12 | 7.47 | 15.65 | 2.87 |
| P/AFFO | 14.74 | 14.28 | 8.37 | 20.68 | 4.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.74 | 1.71 | 1.14 | 2.31 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 0.96 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CI's fair value at $365.74 vs the current price of $289.82, implying +26.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $365.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $303.10 (P10) to $412.58 (P90), with a median of $356.55.
CI's current P/E of 23.9x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +8.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
39 analysts cover CI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $325.83 (range: $300.00 — $375.00), implying +12.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (30), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CI trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 360.0% to approximately $300. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.