MODEL VERDICT
Cigna Corporation (CI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $282.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $275.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $278.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $268.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $271.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $582.99 | +106.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $295.62 | +4.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $603.34 | +113.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $328.23 | +16.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $582.99 | +106.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $292.74 | +3.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $538.73 | +90.4% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $458.13 | +61.9% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $204 | $249 | $294 | $339 | $384 |
| Conservative (5%) | $210 | $256 | $303 | $349 | $396 |
| Base Case (-0.7%) | $198 | $242 | $286 | $330 | $374 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $198 | $242 | $286 | $330 | $373 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.25 | 15.21 | 9.07 | 22.78 | 4.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.33 | 12.40 | 10.59 | 15.08 | 1.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.31 | 10.24 | 8.25 | 12.55 | 1.38 |
| P/FCF | 10.10 | 8.73 | 8.29 | 14.09 | 2.38 |
| P/FFO | 10.96 | 10.92 | 7.47 | 15.07 | 2.61 |
| P/AFFO | 13.44 | 13.01 | 8.37 | 20.68 | 4.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CI's fair value at $458.13 vs the current price of $282.90, implying +61.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $458.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $401.88 (P10) to $481.97 (P90), with a median of $441.55.
CI's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -51.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover CI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $328.00 (range: $300.00 — $375.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (31), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6280.0% to approximately $461. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.