Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$289.82
→
Intrinsic$171.60
-41%
$86.89$171.60$340.21
Market implies 19% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 10% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $290, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (19%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $87 → Bull $340. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $230 | $259 | $290 | $323 |
| 10% | $132 | $151 | $172 | $194 |
| 12% | $80 | $94 | $109 | $125 |
| 14% | $48 | $59 | $71 | $83 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($340) offers 17% upside at 12% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($87) implies 70% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 19% growth expectations vs 10% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 41% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Net Income Projection
Year 1$3.78B
Year 2$4.15B
Year 3$4.57B
Year 4$5.02B
Year 5$5.53B
Terminal$87.57B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$3.43BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.