MODEL VERDICT
City Office REIT, Inc. (CIO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 17 industry peers | $10.29 | +47.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 22 industry peers | $12.80 | +83.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $12.61 | +80.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $8.40 | +20.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.40 | +20.2% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.73 | 10.15 | 1.83 | 14.20 | 6.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.04 | 35.35 | 16.65 | 53.66 | 12.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.35 | 8.06 | 6.81 | 10.89 | 1.52 |
| P/FCF | 8.16 | 8.85 | 3.70 | 13.39 | 4.28 |
| P/FFO | 3.67 | 4.04 | 1.42 | 5.89 | 1.67 |
| P/TBV | 0.84 | 1.09 | 0.32 | 1.24 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 3.42 | 2.67 | 1.43 | 6.13 | 1.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.97 | 0.30 | 1.10 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.80 | 2.87 | 1.29 | 5.31 | 1.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIO's fair value at $8.40 vs the current price of $6.99, implying +20.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.50 (P10) to $8.96 (P90), with a median of $7.08.
CIO's current P/E of -11.1x compares to the industry median of 44.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -124.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover CIO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +114.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CIO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.