MODEL VERDICT
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $13.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $13.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $14.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $14.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.46 | Below threshold | -20.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $5.81 | -56.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $5.53 | -58.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $7.08 | -46.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $9.40 | -29.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $4.91 | -63.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $10.72 | -19.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $25.19 | +88.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $6.51 | -51.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $5.29 | -60.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $7.21 | -46.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $9.79 | -26.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.32 | -7.7% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (23%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Conservative (38%) | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Base Case (58.6%) | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Bull Case (79%) | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 106.14 | 38.19 | 7.39 | 340.78 | 157.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 65.24 | 66.25 | 6.45 | 161.64 | 62.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 68.21 | 60.94 | 34.02 | 122.02 | 29.82 |
| P/FCF | 39.45 | 35.32 | 17.49 | 74.13 | 19.54 |
| P/FFO | 60.52 | 33.24 | 6.55 | 169.03 | 74.69 |
| P/TBV | 24.15 | 19.86 | 15.59 | 41.29 | 12.04 |
| P/AFFO | 110.71 | 38.11 | 6.92 | 359.72 | 167.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.72 | 13.73 | 9.30 | 48.13 | 16.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.43 | 7.37 | 3.15 | 11.50 | 3.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLBT's fair value at $12.32 vs the current price of $13.34, implying -7.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.86 (P10) to $16.92 (P90), with a median of $12.14.
CLBT's current P/E of 43.0x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +88.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 106.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover CLBT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.67 (range: $18.00 — $23.00), implying +54.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLBT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.