MODEL VERDICT
Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $15.23 | +73.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $16.48 | +88.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $18.16 | +107.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $16.73 | +91.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $3.51 | -59.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $15.96 | +82.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $14.43 | +64.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.90 | +92.9% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 53× | 58× | 63× (Current) | 68× | 73× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 70.52 | 31.19 | 16.27 | 285.45 | 105.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.31 | 11.14 | 7.73 | 104.67 | 35.15 |
| P/FCF | 13.57 | 8.51 | 5.99 | 34.42 | 10.97 |
| P/FFO | 9.91 | 8.65 | 4.55 | 18.53 | 4.94 |
| P/TBV | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 16.02 | 16.02 | 6.77 | 25.29 | 10.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.28 | 2.04 | 1.15 | 3.83 | 1.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLDT's fair value at $16.90 vs the current price of $8.76, implying +92.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.83 (P10) to $25.34 (P90), with a median of $17.54.
CLDT's current P/E of 62.6x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +149.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover CLDT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +25.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLDT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.