MODEL VERDICT
The Clorox Company (CLX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $127.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $123.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $125.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $121.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $106.19 | Pending | +12.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $115.93 | -8.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $111.60 | -12.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $173.27 | +36.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $131.35 | +3.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $162.23 | +27.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $125.65 | -1.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $97.72 | -23.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $106.70 | -16.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $172.87 | +35.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $131.05 | +3.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $155.59 | +22.4% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $106 | $120 | $133 | $146 | $160 |
| Conservative (5%) | $110 | $123 | $137 | $151 | $164 |
| Base Case (-2.4%) | $102 | $115 | $127 | $140 | $153 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $101 | $114 | $126 | $139 | $151 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.73 | 31.25 | 15.46 | 118.83 | 36.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.63 | 25.22 | 12.93 | 59.43 | 16.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.02 | 19.06 | 10.90 | 22.07 | 3.53 |
| P/FCF | 25.54 | 23.49 | 16.47 | 41.97 | 8.93 |
| P/FFO | 27.14 | 24.13 | 12.18 | 45.99 | 11.62 |
| P/AFFO | 46.81 | 37.68 | 15.49 | 112.78 | 33.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 34.03 | 35.65 | 23.85 | 45.64 | 8.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.79 | 2.86 | 1.76 | 3.84 | 0.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLX's fair value at $155.59 vs the current price of $127.16, implying +22.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $155.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.04 (P10) to $178.48 (P90), with a median of $151.76.
CLX's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -26.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover CLX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $121.00 (range: $94.00 — $152.00), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8600.0% to approximately $237. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.