Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$127.16
→
Intrinsic$89.35
-30%
$54.25$89.35$156.09
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
CLX trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $127, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $54 → Bull $156. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $110 | $122 | $135 | $149 |
| 10% | $72 | $80 | $89 | $99 |
| 12% | $51 | $57 | $64 | $71 |
| 14% | $38 | $43 | $48 | $54 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($156) offers 23% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($54) implies 57% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 15% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 30% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$821.88M
Year 2$887.63M
Year 3$958.64M
Year 4$1.04B
Year 5$1.12B
Terminal$16.45B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$761.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.