MODEL VERDICT
CNX Resources Corporation (CNX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $41.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $40.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $40.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $34.50 | Below threshold | +13.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $35.19 | -15.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $38.74 | -7.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $56.81 | +36.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $29.20 | -30.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $37.91 | -9.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $20.50 | -50.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $18.68 | -55.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $24.63 | -41.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $56.80 | +36.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $30.50 | -27.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $112.75 | +169.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $25 | $33 | $41 | $50 | $58 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $34 | $42 | $51 | $59 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $35 | $44 | $53 | $61 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $27 | $36 | $45 | $54 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.17 | 9.24 | 2.22 | 52.06 | 26.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 452.28 | 25.09 | 2.77 | 2087.37 | 915.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.13 | 4.35 | 1.55 | 6.87 | 2.03 |
| P/FCF | 12.97 | 9.02 | 4.77 | 28.41 | 9.37 |
| P/FFO | 34.26 | 10.00 | 1.78 | 180.25 | 64.97 |
| P/TBV | 1.02 | 1.05 | 0.41 | 1.50 | 0.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.34 | 1.36 | 0.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.09 | 1.98 | 0.81 | 4.12 | 1.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNX's fair value at $112.75 vs the current price of $41.78, implying +169.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $112.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.31 (P10) to $343.72 (P90), with a median of $123.55.
CNX's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -26.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
41 analysts cover CNX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.57 (range: $26.00 — $62.00), implying -5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (21), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CNX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (27.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9730.0% to approximately $82. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.