MODEL VERDICT
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $191.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $199.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $206.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $195.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $167.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $126.79 | -33.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $134.45 | -29.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $70.97 | -62.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $115.35 | -39.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $44.38 | -76.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $214.87 | +12.3% | 100% | 71 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $198 | $214 | $230 | $246 | $262 |
| Conservative (33%) | $218 | $236 | $254 | $272 | $289 |
| Base Case (50.3%) | $247 | $268 | $288 | $308 | $328 |
| Bull Case (68%) | $276 | $299 | $321 | $344 | $366 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 141.12 | 38.51 | 17.40 | 470.05 | 219.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 1796.55 | 29.55 | 16.98 | 7110.12 | 3542.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.83 | 26.27 | 16.53 | 55.70 | 20.39 |
| P/FCF | 28.82 | 26.66 | 14.04 | 47.94 | 14.06 |
| P/FFO | 68.41 | 34.96 | 15.05 | 188.66 | 81.12 |
| P/TBV | 7.01 | 7.47 | 1.85 | 9.95 | 3.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.64 | 6.61 | 1.44 | 8.70 | 2.80 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.78 | 9.79 | 2.46 | 14.23 | 4.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates COIN's fair value at $214.87 vs the current price of $191.25, implying +12.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $214.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $116.25 (P10) to $410.10 (P90), with a median of $222.06.
COIN's current P/E of 43.0x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +50.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 141.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover COIN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $243.33 (range: $120.00 — $440.00), implying +27.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (12), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4340.0% to approximately $108. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.