MODEL VERDICT
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $35.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $34.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $39.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $40.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $37.50 | Below threshold | +10.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $9.35 | -73.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $8.67 | -75.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $17.26 | -51.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $31.23 | -12.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $8.97 | -74.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $28.34 | -20.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $62.04 | +73.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $64.71 | +81.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $19.44 | -45.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $34.28 | -4.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.11 | -43.7% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 41× | 44× (Current) | 47× | 50× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $32 | $34 | $37 | $39 | $42 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $35 | $38 | $40 | $43 |
| Base Case (-0.7%) | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.01 | 30.78 | 15.71 | 42.44 | 10.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.29 | 24.77 | 13.04 | 61.10 | 16.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.70 | 24.34 | 12.79 | 86.99 | 25.21 |
| P/FCF | 22.05 | 21.55 | 10.98 | 29.45 | 7.40 |
| P/FFO | 29.35 | 30.01 | 15.39 | 41.12 | 9.84 |
| P/TBV | 6.22 | 6.45 | 4.00 | 8.41 | 1.48 |
| P/AFFO | 29.56 | 30.36 | 15.57 | 41.21 | 9.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.22 | 6.45 | 4.00 | 8.41 | 1.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.88 | 6.81 | 4.84 | 9.18 | 1.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CORT's fair value at $20.11 vs the current price of $35.70, implying -43.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.52 (P10) to $25.03 (P90), with a median of $20.67.
CORT's current P/E of 43.5x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +106.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover CORT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.40 (range: $30.00 — $100.00), implying +91.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CORT trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CORT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2990.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.