MODEL VERDICT
Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $33.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $34.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $34.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $33.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $33.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $36.89 | +9.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $25.72 | -23.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $33.82 | +0.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $31.00 | -8.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $36.89 | +9.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $35.48 | +5.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.22 | -1.4% | 100% | 90 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $25 | $31 | $37 | $43 | $49 |
| Conservative (11%) | $25 | $32 | $38 | $45 | $51 |
| Base Case (16.8%) | $27 | $34 | $40 | $47 | $54 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.60 | 10.86 | 7.57 | 14.75 | 2.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.79 | 6.01 | 2.57 | 13.47 | 3.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.92 | 5.56 | 2.34 | 12.13 | 3.26 |
| P/FCF | 9.20 | 9.71 | 5.76 | 13.05 | 2.63 |
| P/FFO | 9.96 | 9.80 | 6.81 | 12.68 | 2.46 |
| P/TBV | 1.34 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.65 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 13.98 | 12.94 | 8.78 | 22.64 | 5.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.31 | 1.41 | 0.98 | 1.60 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.39 | 2.31 | 1.67 | 3.29 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPF's fair value at $33.22 vs the current price of $33.70, implying -1.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.08 (P10) to $34.27 (P90), with a median of $32.12.
CPF's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 12.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -8.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
8 analysts cover CPF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $26.00 — $30.00), implying -16.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CPF trades at the 3150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CPF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 120.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.