MODEL VERDICT
Copart, Inc. (CPRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $33.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $32.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $34.20 | +2.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $40.69 | +22.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $45.97 | +38.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $28.54 | -14.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $45.34 | +36.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $33.22 | -0.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $27.21 | -18.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $15.58 | -53.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $12.86 | -61.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $42.27 | +27.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $27.39 | -17.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.14 | +35.7% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $29 | $32 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Conservative (11%) | $30 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 |
| Base Case (16.8%) | $32 | $35 | $39 | $43 | $46 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.74 | 38.28 | 24.62 | 43.58 | 7.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.21 | 31.30 | 18.78 | 37.26 | 6.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.50 | 28.27 | 18.58 | 33.04 | 5.71 |
| P/FCF | 60.89 | 58.18 | 31.10 | 96.64 | 23.51 |
| P/FFO | 31.42 | 33.90 | 21.64 | 37.76 | 6.18 |
| P/TBV | 9.99 | 8.56 | 4.44 | 15.74 | 4.11 |
| P/AFFO | 65.33 | 53.79 | 31.91 | 151.46 | 40.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.66 | 7.91 | 4.16 | 12.30 | 3.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.44 | 12.24 | 8.24 | 13.77 | 2.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPRT's fair value at $45.14 vs the current price of $33.27, implying +35.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.97 (P10) to $47.08 (P90), with a median of $42.46.
CPRT's current P/E of 20.9x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -27.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
19 analysts cover CPRT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.50 (range: $33.00 — $48.00), implying +21.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CPRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (38.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9550.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.