MODEL VERDICT
Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 50 industry peers | $9.27 | +3.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 53 industry peers | $17.56 | +96.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 51 bank peers | $18.73 | +109.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $9.63 | +7.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 50 analyst estimates | $20.11 | +125.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.57 | +40.8% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $6 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 |
| Conservative (19%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
| Base Case (29.1%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.61 | 5.21 | 2.74 | 15.32 | 4.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 99.40 | 96.38 | 21.95 | 258.17 | 81.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 92.75 | 88.53 | 21.65 | 231.03 | 72.61 |
| P/FCF | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 1.56 | 0.47 |
| P/FFO | 6.97 | 5.12 | 2.69 | 13.17 | 4.15 |
| P/TBV | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 1.79 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 7.35 | 5.18 | 2.75 | 14.15 | 4.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 1.79 | 0.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.19 | 1.14 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPSS's fair value at $12.57 vs the current price of $8.93, implying +40.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.48 (P10) to $16.10 (P90), with a median of $12.62.
CPSS's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a -3.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover CPSS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CPSS trades at the 4800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CPSS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.