MODEL VERDICT
Caribou Biosciences, Inc. (CRBU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $0.81 | -50.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $0.87 | -46.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.39 | -14.5% | 100% | 48 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.33 | 1.21 | 0.57 | 2.34 | 0.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.21 | 0.57 | 2.34 | 0.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 37.24 | 20.97 | 12.27 | 94.75 | 38.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRBU's fair value at $1.39 vs the current price of $1.63, implying -14.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.57 (P10) to $2.47 (P90), with a median of $1.41.
CRBU's current P/E of -1.0x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -104.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover CRBU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying +329.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRBU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.